Dut Dut Dut Duhhhhhh…..Errrr, Whodat??? The Official SmackChron NFL Conference Championship Predictions
Miscellany Hootenany January 23rd, 2010
Updated…scroll to bottom.
No, I usually don’t venture this blog beyond the usual issues of sex and politics…but, being a fan of the National Football League, I figure that I might as well add my predictions for this weekend’s conference championships. Especially since they now affect me pretty directly.
First, the AFC early game:
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts – 3 PM EST kickoff, broadcast by CBS (Indy as 6-1/2 point faves)
Ahhh, the mouth and self-confidence of Rex “Son of Buddy” Ryan…and thus far his defense has more than backed up his smack with two straight road wins (Cincinnati and San Diego). The fact that he was helped by key critical mistakes by those teams (as in 3 missed field goals by the Chargers and a subpar performance by Carson Palmer and the loss of Cincy’s deep threat with Chris Henry’s tragic passing) does not change the fact that the J-E-T-S are in the Pentultimate Big Show….and that their rock-solid D and smash-mouth power running game (and the steady hand of rookie QB Mark Sanchez) gives them both a rally cry for the old school style of play and the oppurtunity to beat the house.
Problem is, for the Jets, Peyton Manning ain’t Carson Palmer or even David Rivers…he’s seen it all and responds all too well to pressure. And, even if Darrelle Revis, who is the ultimate Shutdown Corner right about now, can eliminate Colt WR Reggie Wayne, who will stop the rest of the Indy receivers?? Pierre Garcon?? Aaron Colie?? David Clark?? Oh, and while Indy’s running game has been a bit nonexistent, it is during the big games where backs like Joesph Addai flash their greatness.
If Rex’s boys can keep the game tight going into the 4th quarter, then they have a real chance for the upset. I just don’t see it getting that close, though…too much Peyton and dome field advantage.
Prediction: Colts 28, Jets 17.
Now, the late game:
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints – 5:40 New Orleans time kickoff, broadcast by FOX (NO favored by 4-1/2)
The Vikings didn’t pay Brett Farve that much money, and head coach Brad Childress didn’t spend all that time coaxing him out of his “retirement”, just for fun. Just his experience and his wiles and his thowing out of his backside and finding the right guy at the right time has elevated the Vikes into a genuiinely feared Super Bowl threat. And although Adrian Peterson hasn’t had the big numbers of early seasons and hasn’t broken off the really big runs, he’s still durable and physical enough of a back to be taken seriously. That, and the modern day Purple People Eaters in the defensive front 4 (led by Jarred Allen), who basically decimated the vaunted Dallas Cowboys offense last week.
That was last week, though. And that was in Minneapolis.
New Orleans, though, is a fundamentally different team.
This is NOT the same team that gave up huge numbers to the likes of Washington, Atlanta, and Carolina, and who rested on their laurels and basically gave up the Tampa Bay game (though it still took a shanked Garrett Hartley game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation to keep the Bucs alive to win it in OT). Nor is it the same team that in the last four regular season games could not defend the run or run it themselves.
Drew Brees is….well, the surgeon that Drew Brees has always been, and with three All-Pro linemen defending his backside and some nifty playcalling by head coach Sean Payton, they should basically control that Minnesota pass rush. (Allen being the caveat, of course, if G Jerome Bushrod doesn’t get help in his blocking schemes.) It would help a great deal if TE Jeremy Shockey can play, he’s struggling with a knee injury, but is expected to contribute.
Oh…and did I mention this kid named Reggie Bush who has been hidden all this time during the regular season?? He adds the sizzle to the already steady and consistent trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Darnell Hamilton….and if the Viking front line is as dinged up as reported (DT Pat Williams is doubtful due to a knee injury), that could take tremendous pressure off of Brees and allow the Saints to do some ball control of their own and keep Farve off the field.
And when Farve is on the field, he won’t have one of key weapons, WR/KR Percy Harvin, who is suffering from chronic migranes and may not even make the trip down to New Orleans. One less headache for Saints D Coordinator Gregg Williams, who will attempt to both contain Peterson from breaking the big play and pressure Farve into making throws out of his ass…which could mean a big INT payday for all time interception leader S Darren Sharper.
Still…you dont want Brett Farve to have the ball last with time on the clock and a chance to win it all…he is that dangerous.
Fortunately, I don’t think that the Saints will allow him to get to that…because they start quick, score early and often, and get the breaks of a Peterson fumble and a Sharper INT (and perhaps even a Bush punt return TD or three)…and then slam the door on Farve late with constant pressure D.
Not to mention….they have the fiercest Dome-field advantage EVER….80,000 Whodats united blowing the roof off the Superdome can do wonders.
Prediction: Saints 38, Vikings 24.
We will see, of course, tomorrow. Should be fun times.
Update (1-23-10): Minnesota WR Percy Harvin did make the trip to New Orleans, but he’s still doubtful due to his chronic migranes. I do expect him to make a go at it. Saints TE Jerome Shockey is expected to play with a dinged up knee.
Some very interesting comments from TheCoach overat Lion’s Den University regarding his personal opinions on both games, First, on Saints/Vikings:
Last week, the Cowboys didn’t actually play as bad as the 34-3 thrashing intended. Dallas moved the chains early on in the game and had positioned themselves for a touchdown and a field goal before committing stupid penalties and turnovers but as soon as Flozell Adams went down, Jared Allen took over the game getting to Romo on almost every play. TheCoach doesn’t see Allen having the same type of impact this week unless the Saints suffer a huge blow during the game to their offensive line. No team has been able to pressure Brees this year because he is protected by one of the best offensive lines in football. After the Cardinals mauled Aaron Rodgers the week before, they couldn’t even bring down Brees once last week. If you watched the Cardinals-Saints game, you saw how good New Orleans can be when they play Saints football. It is not only because of their vast amount of talent, but because of how their head coach utilizes the talent. Sean Payton is a great head coach and at times in the game last week had linebackers covering wide-outs and had the entire Arizona defence bite on the flee-flicker that scored a touchdown. E.J. Henderson’s absence at middle linebacker didn’t hurt the Vikings last week because Romo had no time to do anything anyways, but Sean Payton and Drew Brees have WAY to many weapons to not take full advantage of a team who hasn’t looked the same since Henderson went down. Last but certainly not least, the fact Reggie Bush is starting to look like the player we expected him to be, could mean big things come Sunday for the Saints.
TheCoach still calls it a closer game than I do (New Orleans 30-20), due mainly to the Dome field advantage.
Then, he has this on the AFC matchup (Indy-NY Jets):
Peyton Manning played good last week, but this week he is going to have to play great! His offence has the worst running game in the league (ranked 32nd), and the Colts are facing the best pass-defence and if Peyton can’t do it all himself (the guy has done it his whole career), the Jets will be able to upset the Colts. Indianapolis needs to jump out to an early 10 or 14 point lead in order to make the Jets abandon their running game and put the game in Mark Sanchez’s hands. That’s how the Colts blow out the Jets. There is no way Sanchez can keep up with Manning’s prolific offence but if the Jets can keep Peyton off the field early, and run the ball and put up some points themselves… this will turn out to be another great game as the Jets are the Cinderella of the NFL right now. I expect Revis will blanket Reggie Wayne but it won’t matter because when Peyton wants to score, Peyton scores, and will find Garcon or Clark and utilize them all day reminding everyone of why Manning is the best quarterback in the league. No other quarterback has been able to get past what Revis and the Jets do and havn’t had a great game in the process. Before Peyton exited in week 16, he was 14-of-21 for 192 yards, practically on pace for 400 yards and 30 completions… the Colts were up 15-10 and rarely when Manning has a lead does he lose.
I’m not nearly as sold on the Jets because even with their #1 ranked D, they still needed huge help to even make the playoffs, and they also relied as much on the mistakes of the other teams as they did their own talent. I just can’t see Peyton Manning allowing Indy to make those kind of mistakes in a pivotal game…and nothing says that Indy’s running game might just emerge as a surprise. Nevertheless, if they are close or even leading come the 4th quarter, they can definitely pull the upset. I just don’t think that they will bet there.
And for the record, he calls it Indy 23-20.
Tags: Are You Ready For Some Football??, Dut Dut Dut Duumm...., Whodat Nation

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